Source: Argus Media
India's rapidly growing steel industry is fundamentally redrawing the global seaborne trade patterns for metallurgical coal and coke, according to an Argus Media analysis published on September 28, 2026. Indian steel production has risen to approximately 169 million tonnes in 2026, up from 104 million tonnes in 2021, with installed capacity now at roughly 220 million tonnes and expected to approach 300 million tonnes by 2030.
Despite this production growth, India remains heavily dependent on imported coking coal. Domestic coking coal output stands at only about 20 million tonnes per year against annual consumption of approximately 175 million tonnes. Total coking coal and pulverized coal injection imports are projected to reach around 120 million tonnes by 2030, split between roughly 90 million tonnes of coking coal and 30 million tonnes of PCI coal.
The sourcing mix is shifting noticeably away from Australia, which has traditionally dominated supply. Indian buyers are increasingly turning to Russia, the United States, and Mozambique, with Russian PCI coal gaining particular traction due to competitive pricing. Meanwhile, India imported approximately 4 million tonnes of metallurgical coke in the first seven months of 2026, on pace for a full-year total of about 6.5 million tonnes, with Indonesia emerging as a key supplier at 2.7 million tonnes through July.
China continues to play a central role in the seaborne market, as supply disruptions in Shanxi province have tightened coke availability and supported international prices. The interplay between Indian demand growth, shifting supply sources, and Chinese production constraints is creating a more complex and volatile global raw materials market for steelmakers worldwide.
