Source: SteelOrbis / EUROMETAL / IREPAS, reporting from the SteelOrbis Fall 2026 Conference and 95th IREPAS Meeting in Belgrade, 27-29 September 2026
Global steel producers remain cautiously optimistic about underlying demand but expect energy and raw material costs to keep squeezing margins at least through the end of the winter, industry representatives said at the SteelOrbis Fall 2026 Conference and 95th IREPAS Meeting held in Belgrade, Serbia, from 27 to 29 September. Russia's CELSA Group export director Alex Gordienko, speaking on behalf of the producers committee, said that regions now face very different challenges, with European mills particularly exposed to energy-related problems.
Discussing the shift in global supply patterns, Gordienko said India will most likely remain focused on its own domestic market over the next five years, supported by heavy infrastructure investment and rapidly growing construction demand, even as its production capacity expands. Southeast Asian suppliers are expected to stay competitive internationally but to become more selective about their target markets; their presence will remain significant in the MENA region, while access to the European Union will be harder because of quota restrictions.
Turning to Europe, Gordienko pointed to substantial potential demand from housing, power generation, data centres, defence investment and the replacement of ageing infrastructure. Bureaucratic barriers, he said, are preventing those needs from translating into actual construction and investment. In his view the EU has become increasingly effective at protecting its steel market through safeguard measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), but far less successful at creating the economic conditions that make steel production and investment attractive, since no trade defence can compensate for insufficient or expensive energy supply.
On overcapacity, Gordienko said governments increasingly want to preserve domestic steelmaking capacity even when mills struggle to generate profits, while new capacity keeps emerging in several regions. He sees no realistic global mechanism capable of effectively regulating excess capacity. As trade barriers multiply, surplus steel will have fewer export destinations, increasing pressure on the markets that remain open, while protected markets could see temporary shortages and higher prices despite abundant global supply. He added that this fragmentation is changing the traditional steel cycle: instead of one broadly synchronised global cycle, individual regions are increasingly following their own cycles as trade barriers, domestic policies and local market conditions gain importance. Fragmentation, driven by overcapacity, Chinese exports and growing trade barriers, was identified as a key issue for 2027, with market participants needing to focus on developments in their own domestic markets.
