Source: GFSEC / Reuters, with additional reporting from the American Iron and Steel Institute and SMM
More than 30 steel-producing economies have adopted a joint action plan to tackle rising global steel overcapacity at a meeting of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on 1 October 2026. The agreement, known as the Milwaukee Framework, was reached under the chairmanship of United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of a G20 trade ministers gathering. It comes as global steel excess capacity is projected to climb from 601 million tonnes in 2024 to 745 million tonnes by 2028, the highest level in a decade, with the projected surplus exceeding the combined current production of all GFSEC members by 319 million tonnes.
Under the framework, participating economies committed to work through their national legal systems to reduce and eliminate market-distorting subsidies and government support that contribute to persistent overcapacity, while reaffirming their commitment to World Trade Organisation rules and a rules-based trading system. Members also agreed to improve supply-chain transparency by collecting country of melt and pour data, which helps establish the true origin of steel products and identify possible circumvention of trade restrictions. The framework further envisages anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations, global safeguard investigations and coordinated monitoring to prevent displaced steel from entering member markets through indirect channels.
While the ministerial statement referred only to non-market policies and practices in some non-GFSEC economies, forum documents point to structural imbalances in global trade flows. Figures cited from the OECD indicate that a typical steel firm in China receives subsidies through grants, tax concessions and below-market borrowing at a level roughly 15 times higher relative to its assets than comparable firms elsewhere, and that the subsidy rate has nearly doubled since 2019. Chinese steel exports reached a record 131 million tonnes in 2025, up 153 percent since 2020, and Chinese steelmakers are reported to be adding 70 million tonnes of new capacity overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, a pattern participants flagged as a potential circumvention route. Greer said the United States would work with fellow members to implement the framework and restore a global level playing field, while American Iron and Steel Institute President Kevin Dempsey urged members to follow through on the commitments made in Milwaukee.
Participants at the two-day meeting, which ran from 30 September to 1 October and included representatives from the European Union, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Turkey and Southeast Asian economies, assessed ways to prevent excess capacity from further distorting international steel trade and agreed to coordinate investment, production and trade policies. Industry observers noted that the framework's credibility will depend on whether members translate its commitments into enforceable domestic measures, with several exporting nations expected to face closer scrutiny of transshipment flows as origin-tracing requirements spread across major steel-importing markets.
