Source: Mysteel
Leading steel market analyst Wang Jianhua has forecast that Chinese steel prices are likely to fluctuate with a rebound potential in October 2026, as post-holiday market dynamics and supply-side adjustments create conditions for price recovery. The outlook comes at a critical juncture as the market emerges from the National Day holiday break.
On the supply side, production line maintenance for hot-rolled strip products has increased notably around the National Day period, helping to ease supply pressure in the market. Stainless steel crude steel output for September is estimated to have decreased by approximately 245,100 tonnes month-on-month, while industrial wire rod production fell to 5.403 million tonnes, down 6.09 percent from the previous month. These production cuts reflect mill responses to softer demand and margin pressures.
Raw material markets are also sending mixed signals. Coke prices have entered a downward channel as demand weakens, with the first round of price reductions already implemented at 100 to 110 yuan per tonne. The softening of key input costs could provide some relief for steel mill margins, though it also signals broader demand-side weakness in the upstream chain.
On the macroeconomic front, China's central bank announced it will conduct 1.2 trillion yuan in three-month buyout-style reverse repo operations on 8 October, a significant liquidity injection that could bolster market sentiment and support post-holiday commodity trading. Additionally, the State Council held a meeting on 30 September focused on strengthening macroeconomic policy effectiveness and promoting productive investment, signalling continued policy support for industrial activity.
Regional market reports paint a nuanced picture. Cold-rolled coil prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in October, while section steel prices in Sichuan may see an initial uptick before pulling back as cost and demand forces compete. The divergence across products suggests that any broad price recovery will be uneven and contingent on sustained demand improvement, particularly from the construction and infrastructure sectors.
