Source: India Ministry of Steel draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047, as reported by Business Standard, Moneycontrol and Reuters
India's Ministry of Steel has released a draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047 that sets out a long-term roadmap for the sector, proposing to expand crude steelmaking capacity to 604 million tonnes a year by 2047 from roughly 220 million tonnes of installed capacity today. The ministry published the consultation draft late on 10 October and has invited comments and suggestions from industry participants and other stakeholders until 30 October 2026. The document is intended to replace the National Steel Policy 2017 and to reflect priorities that have shifted since it was written, including decarbonisation, import substitution, technology upgrading and the development of higher-value steel grades.
The headline targets are built on an assumed average GDP growth rate of about 7 percent and a capacity utilisation rate of 88 percent, compared with 77 percent in 2025. Under those assumptions, the draft projects crude steel output of 531 million tonnes and finished steel consumption of 505 million tonnes by 2047, up from 170 million tonnes of production in the 2025-26 fiscal year. Per-capita finished steel consumption would rise to 302 kilograms from 116 kilograms at present, while steel exports are targeted at 45 million tonnes.
Raw material security is identified as a central constraint on the expansion. The draft projects iron ore demand of 772 million tonnes by 2047, more than double the 299 million tonnes required in 2025, and coking coal demand of 236 million tonnes, roughly three times current levels. India imports close to 92 percent of its coking coal, and the policy proposes to reduce that exposure through expanded domestic mining and coal washing capacity, overseas asset acquisitions, long-term supply arrangements and the use of artificial intelligence to optimise blends of imported coal grades. The draft notes that raw materials account for 65 to 70 percent of steelmaking costs. It also proposes a substantial build-out of iron ore slurry pipelines, from about 18 million tonnes a year today to more than 299 million tonnes a year by 2047, supported by a single-window clearance process and viability gap funding.
On emissions, the draft sets a target of reducing the sector's average carbon dioxide intensity to 1.54 tonnes per tonne of crude steel by 2047 from 2.54 tonnes currently, a reduction of about 39 percent, against a global average of roughly 1.92 tonnes. The transition is planned in phases, beginning with energy and resource efficiency, renewable electricity and greater scrap use, followed by wider adoption of advanced technologies and later by hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Scrap consumption is projected to climb to 123 million tonnes by 2047 from 36 million tonnes in the 2025-26 fiscal year, supported by a mission-mode collection programme covering households, industrial assets, construction waste and end-of-life vehicles.
