Source: World Steel Association (worldsteel) Short Range Outlook October 2026, as reported by SteelOrbis, Business Standard and the China Iron and Steel Association
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its Short Range Outlook for 2026 and 2027 on 12 October 2026 in New Delhi, revising down the demand forecast it issued in April. The association now expects global steel demand to remain essentially unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 million tonnes, instead of the modest growth it projected six months ago, before returning to growth of 1.7 percent in 2027 to reach 1,752 million tonnes. The previous forecast called for 0.3 percent growth this year and 2.2 percent next year. According to worldsteel, almost the whole of the downward revision is attributable to China.
Chinese steel demand is now expected to contract by 2.0 percent in 2026 to 780.1 million tonnes and by a further 1.0 percent in 2027 to 772.3 million tonnes. The property investment downturn has not decelerated as anticipated, infrastructure investment has stayed in negative territory, and continued growth in manufacturing demand driven by strong exports has not been enough to offset the weakness in construction. Outside China, however, demand is forecast to grow by 1.5 percent this year and accelerate to 4.0 percent in 2027. Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said the recovery described in April had not weakened, but that its momentum was being masked by the scale of China's structural contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions stemming from instability in the Middle East.
India remains the world's fastest-growing major steel market, with demand projected to expand by 7.9 percent in 2026 to 172.4 million tonnes and by 8.0 percent in 2027 to 186.2 million tonnes, supported by infrastructure-led construction, private real estate and manufacturing. Demand across the five ASEAN markets covered by the forecast is set to grow 5.2 percent this year, with Vietnam's apparent steel use reaching about 30 million tonnes for the first time. In the developed world, demand is forecast to grow 1.0 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027, with the United States up 2.0 percent on data-centre and energy investment and the European Union declining 0.3 percent before a 3.1 percent rebound next year. Gulf demand is expected to fall about 11 percent in 2026 as regional conflict defers projects, before rebounding 11.3 percent in 2027.
Worldsteel noted that the developed-world market remains roughly 60 million tonnes, or 15 percent, smaller than in 2017-2018, and that the growth forecast for 2026-2027 recovers only about 10 million tonnes of that gap. The association also flagged persistent risks to the outlook, including prolonged instability in the Middle East, further energy-market disruptions and rising trade frictions, and said it retains a measure of caution regarding the 2027 recovery despite the broadly based improvement expected outside China.
