Source: China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) / SteelOrbis / Mysteel
China produced 724.77 million tonnes of crude steel in the first nine months of 2026, down 2.9 percent from a year earlier, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 19. Pig iron output over the same period totalled 628.44 million tonnes, a decline of 3.0 percent, while finished steel production fell 2.0 percent to 1.0671 billion tonnes. The nine-month contraction was 0.2 percentage points narrower than that recorded for January-August, suggesting the pace of decline is easing even as the industry continues to run below last year's levels.
September offered a mixed picture. Crude steel output reached 73.59 million tonnes, marginally above the level of a year earlier at plus 0.1 percent, but 1.4 percent below the August figure, with daily average production of 2.453 million tonnes. Pig iron output fell to 65.34 million tonnes, down 1.4 percent on the year and 3.4 percent on the month, while finished steel production rose 3.0 percent month on month to 118.17 million tonnes even though it remained 3.8 percent below the September 2025 level. Coke output dropped sharply, declining 8.2 percent year on year to 39.04 million tonnes.
Indicators of capacity pressure remain prominent. Capacity utilisation in China's ferrous smelting and rolling sector stood at 75.1 percent in September, five percentage points lower than a year earlier, and averaged 76.9 percent for the January-September period, down 3.2 percentage points, a trajectory analysts describe as steadily weakening. Value added in the sector grew just 1.6 percent in September and 1.7 percent over the first nine months, well below growth of 5.5 percent and 5.3 percent recorded by industry as a whole over the same periods.
Weak construction demand remains the main drag on consumption. Property development investment fell 20.6 percent in the first three quarters, with floor space newly started down 24.9 percent and completions down 25.1 percent. Fixed-asset investment declined 7.2 percent overall, with manufacturing investment down 2.1 percent and infrastructure investment down 4.2 percent. Manufacturing provided a partial offset: value added in metal products rose 8.2 percent in September, metal-cutting machine tool output grew 10.1 percent over nine months and industrial robot production expanded 29.1 percent. Vehicle output fell 3.7 percent in the nine-month period, but automobile exports surged 51.9 percent, and the value of industrial export deliveries rose 17.0 percent in September, underlining the extent to which overseas markets are now carrying demand for Chinese steel and steel-intensive goods while the domestic market stays soft.
