Source: Bloomberg / Fastmarkets / AISI / CRU Group
US prices for hot-rolled coil, the benchmark grade for the domestic steel market, climbed to their highest level in more than four years this week, as import restrictions imposed under the Trump administration continue to tighten the availability of foreign material. Fastmarkets assessed the HRC benchmark at USD 1,255 per short ton on 16 October, a gain of 52 percent over the past twelve months and the strongest reading since May 2022. Market participants said the move reflects a shortage of imported supply rather than a sudden surge in end-user demand.
Data from the American Iron and Steel Institute show that US imports of finished steel fell by about 14 percent year on year to roughly 13 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2026, cutting the import share of the domestic market from 19 percent to 16 percent. Buyers have reportedly reduced exposure to overseas suppliers while trade policy toward Canada and Mexico remains unsettled, with talks on metals and automotive tariffs again failing to produce an agreement. CRU Group analysts said import restrictions combined with constantly shifting trade policy have prompted customers to cut bookings, leaving the market short of replacement volumes.
Domestic supply is expected to tighten further before the year ends. Planned maintenance at US mills is projected to affect more than one million tonnes of output between September and December, according to Fastmarkets, removing tonnage as service centres typically rebuild inventories. Ferrous scrap costs have already begun to rise earlier than usual, while negotiations over 2027 contract volumes are running in favour of producers, with discounts expected to be smaller than in recent years.
The price environment has sharply improved margins for domestic producers. Nucor shares have risen by more than 50 percent so far this year, and the sector reports third-quarter results in the coming weeks, with analysts expecting higher sales and earnings. Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics are also seen benefiting from stronger domestic pricing. Downstream, manufacturers, builders and data-centre developers face steep cost increases, and steel inflation has become a sensitive political issue ahead of the midterm elections.
Globally, US hot-rolled coil is now roughly one and a half times the European price and close to three times the Chinese benchmark. That gap continues to shape trade flows, encouraging exporters in Asia and Europe to redirect volumes toward other destinations and supporting investment in processing capacity in the Americas. Market sources expect prices to grind gradually higher into the first quarter, with the pace depending on restocking and on whether Washington adjusts its tariff framework.
