Source: worldsteel.org
The World Steel Association released its October 2026 Short Range Outlook, forecasting that global steel demand will remain essentially unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 million tonnes, before returning to growth of 1.7 percent in 2027 to reach 1,752 million tonnes. The forecast represents a downward revision from the April outlook, which had anticipated modest growth this year and a 2.2 percent expansion next year.
Alfonso Hidalgo De Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, explained that almost the entire downward revision stems from China. Outside China, demand is projected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026 and accelerate to 4.0 percent in 2027, unchanged from the April projection. The recovery momentum is being masked by the scale of China's structural contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions from ongoing instability in the Middle East.
Chinese steel demand is now expected to contract by 2.0 percent in 2026, a steeper decline than previously forecast. The property investment downturn has not decelerated as anticipated, and infrastructure investment has remained in negative territory. For 2027, the contraction is expected to narrow to 1.0 percent as the real estate downturn begins to moderate, though trade frictions are emerging as a significant risk factor.
India remains the world's fastest-growing major steel market, with demand forecast to expand by 7.9 percent in 2026 to 172.4 million tonnes and by 8.0 percent in 2027 to 186.2 million tonnes. Growth continues to be broad-based, driven by infrastructure-led construction, robust private real estate, healthy manufacturing expansion, and a substantial renewable energy project pipeline.
The Gulf region illustrates the conflict's cost most clearly. GCC steel demand grew by 17.7 percent in 2025, but is now expected to fall approximately 11 percent in 2026 as project awards and construction starts are deferred. A rebound of 11.3 percent is forecast for 2027 once uncertainty clears and supply chains normalize.
In the developed world, demand is forecast to grow by 1.0 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027. The United States is projected to grow by 2.0 percent this year, supported by strong investment in data centres and energy infrastructure. The EU is expected to see a slight decline of 0.3 percent in 2026 before recovering by 3.1 percent in 2027, supported by infrastructure and defence spending under the new fiscal framework.
